One day, a fisherman named Urashima Taro saves a small turtle from boys who are teasing it. The next day, a turtle comes to thank him by taking him down to the Dragon Palace at the bottom of the sea, where he spends time as if in a dream. But when he returns home, many more years have passed than he had realized. Overcome with sadness, he lifts the lid of a treasure box he was given when he left the Dragon Palace, despite being warned that he should never open it…
Once upon a time there lived a young fisherman named Urashima Taro. One day, Taro came upon some children who were tormenting a sea turtle on the beach. Feeling pity for the turtle, Taro told the children to let it go, but they would not stop. Taro finally saved the turtle and let it return to the sea.
Several days later, the turtle appeared before Taro once again and called to him. “Thank you for rescuing me the other day. You saved my life.” The turtle then extended an invitation. “In return, please allow me to show you Ryugu-jo, the palace of the Dragon King. Come, ride on my back.” Taro thought he would indeed like to see Ryugu-jo, so he seated himself on the turtle’s back. He and the turtle dove to the bottom of the ocean.
In a moment, Taro and the turtle had arrived at the magnificent gates of Ryugu-jo. At the palace, the princess Otohime gave Taro a warm welcome. Taro watched the sea bream and flounders dance, took part in many feasts, and had a wonderful time. After a few days had passed, though, Taro grew homesick for his village and his mother. He told Otohime that he wished to go back home. The princess was greatly distressed at his words, but gave him a gift—a special box called a tamatebako—with strict instructions to never open it.
Taro rode a turtle back to shore. When he arrived, however, the beach seemed completely different. Taro’s home was gone—and so was his mother. Everyone that Taro knew was gone. When he asked the people nearby if they knew an Urashima Taro, they replied that they had indeed heard stories about someone by that name, who long, long ago sank beneath the ocean waves and disappeared. It was then that Taro learned that three hundred years had passed since he had gone to Ryugu-jo. Thinking that all might return to the way it had been if he opened the tamatebako, Taro lifted the lid despite what the princess had told him. When he did so, however, a puff of white smoke came out of the box. The white smoke engulfed Taro and left him an old man, with white hair and beard.
The Sightseeing Limited Express Train “Ibusuki no Tamatebako”:
Based on Urashima Taro’s Legendary Tamatebako
The Kyushu Railway Company (JR Kyushu) operates the “Ibusuki no Tamatebako,” a limited express sightseeing train that takes its name from the legend of Urashima Taro of Kyushu’s Satsuma Peninsula. The train’s bold color scheme—the cars are painted half-white and half-black—and the white mist that sees you off when the doors open and you arrive at the station make it just like a tamatebako on rails.
ual Indigenous place names have been added to two iconic sites in Byron Bay following calls from the community to acknowledge their cultural significance.
The NSW Geographical Names Board approved a submission to officially dual-name Cape Byron as Walgun and Julian Rocks as Nguthungulli.
Walgun, meaning “shoulder” in Bundjalung language, holds significance to the Arakwal and other Bundjalung people as an important ceremonial and gathering site.
Nguthungulli, said to be “the Father of the World”, is an important sacred Aboriginal site associated with several dreaming stories of the Arakwal and other Bundjalung people. Continue reading
The board and Byron Shire Council will also formally name a reserve in the suburb of Bangalow as Piccabeen Park.
Piccabeen is Bundjalung word used to describe the Bangalow Palms found in the area, including the baskets made from its palm frond.
The NSW government has supported a dual naming policy for cultural sites since 2001.
Minister for Customer Service and Digital Government Jihad Dib said the government remained committed to the preservation and promotion of Aboriginal languages and acknowledging Aboriginal culture through place naming.“Place naming gives communities the opportunity to unlock past stories, preserve traditions, reawaken language and provide a sense of belonging and identity,” Dib said.
“All Australians share a relationship to the land and the names we give to places convey their significance, sense of history and identity.
“Dual-naming acknowledges the significance of Aboriginal culture and represents a meaningful step towards the process of unity in NSW.”
Minister for Aboriginal Affairs and Treaty David Harris said acknowledging the history and connection through names brought Story and Language to life for all Australians.
“The Arakwal and other Bundjalung people have had unbroken connections to these places through Story, kinship and Language since the first sunrise,” he said.
One of the biggest debates between generations right now is whether millennial fashion is classic or cringey — so I took the question to New York Fashion Week.
A model walks the runway at PatBo’s New York Fashion Week show on September 9, 2023.
Unfortunately, for those born between 1981 and 1996, members of Gen Z have decided that skinny jeans are outdated, side-part hairstyles look odd, and “going-out tops” are things of the past — much to the disagreement of many millennials.
So when I attended New York Fashion Week on Saturday, I figured it was the perfect time to ask fashionable people from both generations about their thoughts.
Their answers were mixed, to say the least.Advertisementhttps://37066e2946ab76466ae83b1319bea14b.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Actor and style blogger Temi Otedola knew immediately which millennial fashion trend she’d get rid of.
Temi Otedola attends the PatBo runway show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“Skinny jeans,” she replied instantly while shaking her head.
TV personality Blake Newby said millennials need to be careful about what they’re wearing under their outfits.
Blake Newby attends the PatBo runway show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“Improper undergarments are something that drives me nuts. We struggle with it,” she told Insider. “We must prioritize wearing the right undergarments for our looks.”
But as a millennial herself, there’s also one trend Newby stands by: wedges.
“This is going to be very controversial, but I think we should defend wedges — the right wedge done the right way,” she said.
And Newby might be onto something. One stylist who previously spoke with Insider about this summer’s footwear styles said wedges with unique details like straps and open backs could be “the hottest shoe trend for 2023.” Advertisementhttps://37066e2946ab76466ae83b1319bea14b.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Fashion and beauty creator Hana Martin said she’s a millennial-fashion defender.
Hana Martin attends the PatBo runway show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“I’m a Gen Z, but I really love millennial style,” Martin said. “I actually think I’m in with it.”
One trend she loves in particular is the the old-money aesthetic, which makes use of neutral-colored garments, classic prints (think houndstooth and stripes), and timeless fabrics like linen to evoke the image of being wealthy and having a chic lifestyle.
“The classy, elegant style is really in at the moment for Gen Z, and millennials are the OG of that. I love that trend,” she said.
As Martin noted, Gen Z influencers like Sofia Richie Grainge have catapulted the style in recent months. Millennials, however, were the first generation to look at icons like Jackie Kennedy Onassis and Princess Diana as old-school inspiration.
Influencer Amy Lefévre said there are two millennial styles that need to go.
Amy Lefévre attends the PatBo runway show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“I’m really tired of the overly cropped tops, even cropped T-shirts,” she said. “And skinny jeans need to go. They never should have existed in the first place.”Advertisement
Dawn, a drag queen from Brooklyn, also had opinions on millennial pants.
Dawn attends the Cucculelli Shaheen show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“The worst is the high, high-waisted jeans. A nice mid-rise is really OK,” she said with a laugh.
Still, there is one denim style that Dawn says millennials have mastered.
“Are overalls millennial? I think so. I love an overall,” she said.Advertisement
Model Carmen Lee said she feels millennials are often more fashionable than Gen Z.
Carmen Solomons attends the Cucculelli Shaheen show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“The thing about millennials is that everything we have come up with is still in fashion to this day,” she said. “Gen Z is trying to implement all our fashion trends.”
Specifically, Gen Z has been reviving millennial-created trends that the older generation hates. So far, they’ve brought back ballet flats, low-rise pants, and the Fendi Baguette — all former style staples of millennials.
“There hasn’t been anything I’ve learned from Gen Z that I’m like, ‘Oh, that’s timeless.’ No honey,” she added.Advertisementhttps://37066e2946ab76466ae83b1319bea14b.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Stylist Odera Nkem-Mmekam gives millennials some credit but thinks they need to reconsider at least two trends.
Odera Nkem-Mmekam attends the Cucculelli Shaheen show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
“Do you remember the color-blocking thing that happened? I was just thinking about that today. It was awful — like really, really bad,” she said. “But millennials did indie sleaze, and that was cute, honestly.”
Indie sleaze is an aesthetic that mixes grunge pieces with more hipster-esque ones. It was most popular in the mid-2000s and early 2010s.Advertisementhttps://37066e2946ab76466ae83b1319bea14b.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Model Alioune Fall says many millennials make the mistake of trying to wear Gen Z trends rather than what they like.
Alioune Fall attends the Cucculelli Shaheen show during New York Fashion Week on September 9, 2023.
Noting that it’s an “unpopular opinion,” Fall said he’s not a fan of millennials leaning into the “skateboarding style” and Y2K trends that Gen Z love. Instead, he wishes millennials focused on more chic styles.
“I think it’s time to come back to classic looks, suits, tailoring, and wearing what fits your body — not just trends,” he said.
Emily Eavis denies reports the three acts will top the bill on Pyramid stage at next year’s festivalNadia Khomami and Nadeem BadshahMon 6 Nov 2023 00.17 AEDT
The Glastonbury co-organiser Emily Eavis has said reports that Madonna, Dua Lipa and Coldplay have been confirmed to headline Glastonbury next year are untrue.
On Saturday evening, reports claimed the three acts were set to top the bill on the Pyramid stage at the festival in June.
Eavis denied the claims in an Instagram post on Sunday morning, writing: “As always, there is much speculation and excitement about who is playing at Glastonbury. We are working on the line-up day and night at the moment, but it’s still changing every day. The story about our confirmed headliners is untrue.
“As always, we love your enthusiasm and guesswork – but accurate news on headliners will be with you sometime in the new year!”
Were she to be confirmed, it would be Madonna’s first time performing at Glastonbury.
Dua Lipa has also never headlined the event. It would be the first time that two female artists have headlined in the festival’s history.
The Mail on Sunday reported that Madonna, 65, was understood to have agreed to close the festival on the Sunday night on the Pyramid stage. Lipa was said to be Friday’s headline act while Coldplay, who have headlined four times previously – in 2002, 2005, 2011 and 2016 – were reported to be playing on the Saturday.
Next year’s festival in Worthy Farm, Somerset, is scheduled to take place on 26–30 June.
Last year, the headliner lineup was all male with Arctic Monkeys, Guns N’ Roses and Sir Elton John performing.
Last month, Eavis, the daughter of Glastonbury’s founder, Michael Eavis, said the “legend” slot on Sunday teatime would go to a female artist. She also disclosed that a “really big” female US singer’s team had got in touch with her to say she was available, believed to be Madonna.
Eavis told Annie Mac and Nick Grimshaw’s Sidetracked podcast: “2024 is still a little up in the air, and I thought it was taking shape, then last week I just got a call, and this is what happens if you wait a little longer, because often we’ll be booked up from July.
“This year we’re holding out for a little bit longer and last week I got a call from a really big American artist saying this person’s around next year, and I was like: ‘Oh my God, this is incredible.’ Thank God we held the slot.”
Get music news, bold reviews and unexpected extras. Every genre, every era, every weekhttps://www.google.com/recaptcha/api2/anchor?ar=1&k=6LdzlmsdAAAAALFH63cBVagSFPuuHXQ9OfpIDdMc&co=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlZ3VhcmRpYW4uY29tOjQ0Mw..&hl=en&type=image&v=3sU2vDRVDmUU2E0Ro4VadvPr&theme=light&size=invisible&badge=bottomright&cb=ao07jorhvkisPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
after newsletter promotion
Addressing the lack of female headliners, Eavis said: “I’ve always been really passionate about gender split [on festival lineups] and I think, actually, our problem was that I’d been so outspoken about it that having a year when there wasn’t a female sent people a bit mad – or some people.https://2bd675389aecc2ba685a2a868c0c6bcd.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
“And we did have a female – she pulled out and we replaced them with Guns N’ Roses. But everyone knows that it’s top of my list.
“It is difficult with female artists because there aren’t enough headliners. But we’re also creating them. We’re putting the bands and female artists on smaller stages and bringing them through all the time. And who knows? Next year we might get two. And certainly, I can say that the legend is female.”
Earlier this week, Glastonbury festival moved its ticket sales for 2024’s event, originally due to begin on Thursday, back by two weeks.
Organisers said the decision was “to ensure that everyone who would like to buy a ticket is registered and therefore eligible to purchase one … it has come to light that some individuals hoping to buy tickets for 2024 have discovered after Monday’s registration deadline that they are no longer registered, despite believing they were.” The sale has now been moved “out of fairness to those individuals”.
Tickets will go on sale at 6pm GMT on Thursday 16 November for packages including coach travel. General admission tickets will go on sale at 9am GMT on Sunday 19 November.
… there is a good reason why people choose not to support the Guardian.
Not everyone can afford to pay for the news right now. That’s why we choose to keep our journalism open for everyone to read. If this is you, please continue to read for free.
1. Our quality, investigative journalism is a scrutinising force at a time when the rich and powerful are getting away with more and more.
2. We are independent and have no billionaire owner controlling what we do, so your money directly powers our reporting.
3. It doesn’t cost much, and takes less time than it took to read this message.
Choose to power the Guardian’s journalism for years to come, whether with a small sum or a larger one. If you can, please support us on a monthly basis from just $2. It takes less than a minute to s
ow To Win Lotto: 5 Tips To Improve Your Odds of Winning the Jackpot
1. Pick Random Numbers (“Lucky Pick”)
2. Or Pick Your Numbers (“Standard Pick”)
3. Buy More Lotto Tickets
4. Create and Organize a “Lottery Pool”
5. Bet on Frequently Drawn Numbers
Co-authored by Madeleine Flamiano
Everyone dreams of winning the lottery, so why not try to get one step closer to your fantasy? Sure, winning a big payday is a long shot, but that doesn’t mean you can’t have fun playing. We’ll walk you through some basic strategies you can use to improve your chances, from ways to pick numbers to different games you can play. Ready to give your probability of hitting the jackpot a little boost? Review these tips to turn up the entertainment value of playing the lottery and you may just hear your winning numbers one day. Good luck
Things You Should Know
To have a better chance of keeping an entire jackpot if you win it, choose random numbers that aren’t close together—others are less likely to pick that sequence.
Avoid playing numbers that have sentimental value, like ones associated with your birthday, because lots of people might have the same strategy.
Buying more tickets can slightly improve your chances of hitting the jackpot. If you join a lottery group, pool money with others to purchase a large amount of tickets.
Remember—every number has an equal probability of being chosen. There is no “lucky” number, so just have fun selecting ticket numbers and see what happens!
Method1
Selecting Ticket Numbers
1Choose from a wide range of the numbers available in the lottery. Most people play common numbers like their birth or anniversary date. Picking those “lucky” numbers might not be the best move since many lotteries include higher numbers other players tend to ignore. There are only 12 months and 31 days to pick from! You’re better off picking a mixed bag of low and high numbers instead of a few that are close together.[1]
Think of the odds, too—many people go for numbers that carry sentimental value. Even if you win, you might end up having to share the prize with them.
For example, if a Mega Millions ticket requires 5 numbers between 1 and 70, you might play 1, 15, 36, 48, and 63. This is an example of a unique ticket with unrelated numbers that aren’t close together—not a lot of people would intentionally pick these.
2Use the “70 Percent Win” formula when adding up lotto numbers. To try out lottery expert Gail Howard’s strategy for finding a winning combination of numbers, make sure the sum of the numbers you play falls within the “70 Percent Most Probable Range of Sums.” Create a range with the lowest sum of all your lottery numbers as well as the highest sum, then choose combos of lottery numbers within that range. Consider a 5/55 drawing:[2]
1+2+3+4+5=15
51+52+53+54+55=265
The lowest sum and the highest sum each only occur once. Your safest bet is to choose combinations of numbers with sums that aren’t 15 or 265.
Studies suggest that the “70 Percent Range” for 5/55 includes sets of numbers that add up to sums between 104 and 176.
If you don’t want to do any complicated calculations or buy any lotto software, just make sure the lottery numbers you add up don’t result in the lowest or highest possible sum for your drawing.https://d6b6525940ff274372ee9850e9816661.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
3Pick different numbers without following a pattern. Since lotteries pull each lotto number from a range of numbers, they won’t be grouped up in any specific kind of order. For example, winning lottery numbers are unlikely to be clustered together as consecutive numbers (i.e., 1, 2, 3) or within the same number group (i.e. 42, 43, 44). If you write down a range of numbers that look random and don’t have an obvious pattern, then you’re on the right track.[3]
A winning ticket is unlikely to consist of a pattern like 3, 13, 23, 33, 43. It also isn’t likely to be a short range of numbers like 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25.
While a series of numbers may look meaningful to you, like 22, 33, 44, and 55, they’re unlikely to all show up together when the winning lottery numbers are pulled.
Mix up your ticket with both odd and even numbers. Although the winning numbers could be all odd numbers, for instance, it’s unlikely.https://d6b6525940ff274372ee9850e9816661.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
4Choose the least called numbers in the lottery.[4]If you don’t want to split your jackpot prize if you do win, pick the least called numbers, which other people aren’t likely to include on their ticket. However, if you want to go off of past patterns, consider choosing the most common (or frequently appearing) numbers or the most common primary numbers. [5]
Least called numbers in the Powerball: 60, 36, 9, 11, 47, 40, 33, 2, 5 and 46.
Most frequently appearing Powerball numbers: 1, 26, 18, 10, 10, 2, 12, 11, 9, 6 and 20.
Most common primary numbers in the Powerball: 10, 42, 39, 28, 22, 23, 23, 32, 16, 41 and 26.
5Use quick picks if you’re uncertain what numbers to play. Quick picks don’t use any strategy when they’re generated, but they can serve as a starting point when you’re new to a game. With a quick pick, the lottery machine selects numbers for you. Many people win this way, although the odds aren’t any different than when you pick your own numbers.[6]
Quick picks are random, so you know you will end up with a unique set of numbers no one else is likely to have. It has as much of a chance of winning a single drawing as a ticket you picked yourself.
Quick picks save you time, but the machine doesn’t calculate odds for you when it automatically prints out your ticket.
Keep in mind that the sequence of numbers in quick picks are harder to remember than ones you play all the time.
1Buy as many tickets as you can to increase your odds of winning. Lottery experts agree that the number one way to boost your chance of getting a winning ticket is to just get more tickets. Even though the probability of winning the lottery is low in general, the greater the amount of tickets you have, the more likely it is that one of these tickets will be the winner. Just remember to play responsibly and to stay within your budget.[7]
Some people buy hundreds of tickets and lose. Remember that it’s important to stay within your budget, because while the lottery is a fun game, you’re not guaranteed to win money (even if you invested a lot of it stocking up on tickets).
In the biggest lotteries, an unlimited number of tickets can be printed out for every possible number combination. It’d be extremely difficult to buy enough tickets to dramatically increase your odds of getting a winning ticket.
2Play weekly for a low investment that may have a high return. Many lotteries have a drawing each week. Purchase a ticket before each new drawing in order to give yourself a shot at the jackpot. Harvard statistician, Professor Mark Glickman, pointed out that buying weekly tickets is a great strategy because it’s a relatively low investment (around $2 per week) that can lead to a huge pay off.[8]
If you keep buying weekly tickets and the jackpot continues to grow, then you have a greater chance of yielding a profit.
3Join a lottery pool to purchase multiple tickets as a group.Organize a group at your office, school, church, or anywhere else you can find people willing to play. In a pool, or “lottery syndicate,” everyone who joins agrees to buy at least one ticket. If someone wins, they split the money evenly with everyone else in the pool. Depending on how many people join the pool, you could accumulate a bunch of tickets without shelling out a lot of your own money.[9]
Keep in mind that the odds of a big jackpot are still very remote and, if you do win, you’ll have to share the payout with everyone in the pool.
Make sure someone trustworthy handles the money and tickets. Keep a photocopy of your ticket and receipt to ensure you have proof in case you win.
To protect everyone in your lottery group, create a “syndicate agreement,” a formal document that outlines the terms that each member agreed to.[10]
4Play less often if you’re planning to chase a big jackpot. Instead of getting a ticket for every single drawing, save up to play for the big prize. If you’re accustomed to playing a game weekly, you could set aside your money until the payout gets bigger. That way, you get to have fun without spending more than you normally would. The extra tickets bump up your chances of winning very slightly.[11]
The odds of winning are still low no matter how many tickets you get, but this strategy could be fun for you if you’re really motivated by a big payout. Many lotteries, including big ones like Powerball, have a cumulative jackpot that grows when no one wins.
For the best chance of winning money, do this for a smaller game with less participants, like a state pick-3. With bigger games like EuroMillions, your odds will still be very low.
1Invest in smaller lottery games with less numbers to choose from. When the jackpot climbs for the world’s biggest lotteries, most people forget about the smaller games. These games often have better odds and are more likely to pay out. Look for games that pick from a smaller set of numbers or fewer balls. The main trade-off is that these games pay less in prize money than the most popular games.[12]
Regional lottery games have better odds than big games like Powerball and Mega Millions. For example, try a state pick-3 game. You only have to pick 3 numbers to win instead of 5 or 6.
The less numbers a game has, the less combinations there will be, so you’re more likely to select a winning sequence.
2Purchase scratch cards for a quicker and simpler way to play. Many regional lotteries offer scratch-off games. These cards are instant and have better odds of awarding money than big lottery drawings. While the payouts tend to be on the lower side, you could still win a big cash prize if you’re lucky.[13]
Scratch cards are quick and accessible. Most lottery commissions have a number of different games to play. You could get cheap cards or play pricier games with bigger prizes.
A typical scratch card offers 1:5 odds at best, meaning that 1 in every 5 cards is a winner. This could mean winning a prize of $1 USD or a big jackpot. It depends on the game.
3Check your tickets for alternative ways to win. Everyone has their eyes on the jackpot, but many lottery games offer smaller prizes as well. Read up about the rules of the game. They are typically posted on your ticket or on the lottery’s website. Instead of assuming you lost, double-check your ticket and you might notice a fun surprise.[14]
For example, Powerball offers 9 ways to win. You can win a small prize by picking the number on the red ball. You could also win by picking 3 or more white ball numbers.
Expert Q&A
QuestionSo, I went to the convenience store and bought a scratch card for the chance to win $2 million. When I scratched off my card, I earned nothing! Why did this happen?wikiHowThe most trusted how-to site on the internet.Expert AnswerWe’re sorry to hear that the odds weren’t in your favor that time! While some types of scratch-off tickets have a wide pool of prizes to offer, it’s also important to keep in mind that about 10% of games have zero prizes left because convenience stores can continue selling scratch-off tickets even when all winning tickets have already been sold. You can go to a state lottery website and see which games have zero prizes remaining, then opt out of participating in those. Everyone here is hoping you score big if you decide to give scratch-off cards another go!Not Helpful 8Helpful 34
QuestionWhat is a “Luck Zone”?wikiHowThe most trusted how-to site on the internet.Expert AnswerA “Lucky Zone” is a really fun and interesting opportunity in which the Texas Lottery allows players to enter non-winning scratch tickets in order to win prizes other than money, like a luxury hotel experience or a dream getaway.Not Helpful 8Helpful 10
QuestionIs it possible to create a crowdfunded lottery pool? For example, can I host a lottery that has a $1 million lottery prize and in which the cost to participate is $10? Once I’ve reached the jackpot amount, I would make sure that no one else can enter in order to keep the odds the way they were when everyone was doing pitching in.wikiHowThe most trusted how-to site on the internet.Expert AnswerWhile that’s certainly a creative idea, only the government can legally run a lottery. Individuals and companies are not able to operate these types of events. Alternatively, you can host a raffle and give out prizes. Check out Chance2Win.org for the raffle laws in your area. The main difference between a raffle and a lottery is that a raffle must always have a winner.Not Helpful 7Helpful 14
CO2 does not cause significant climate change and the Green New Deal will have no significant effect on climate.
Water vapor is a transparent gas that, molecule for molecule, is at least as effective at absorbing/emitting earth-temperature infrared radiation (IR) as carbon dioxide. From January 1988 through December 2021, NASA/RSS accurately measured and reported monthly the global average water vapor as Total Precipitable Water (TPW). In January 2022, they stopped reporting new global average TPW measurements, a year later deleted the website completely and shortly after that replaced it. At ground level during the period of reporting, average global water vapor molecules increased about 7 times faster than CO2 molecules.
Further analysis shows that the determination by molecule count, that increased CO2 influence on the climate has been only one-seventh as much as the increased water vapor influence, is still high. Radiation from water vapor as low as about 2 kilometers can make it all the way to space and carries away any residual contribution to warming from increased CO2 at low altitude. Radiation to space from CO2 and other IR-active gases is from the tropopause (about 6 to 18 km) and above and actually counters warming.
The end result is that CO2 does not cause significant climate change and the Green New Deal will have no significant effect on climate.
This article has been upload in theepochtimes.com/australia/
Two Australian researchers scrunitised the claim that just 5 percent of rape allegations are false
A sculpture of ‘Lady Justice” is seen above the entrance of Amtsgericht Charlottenburg (Charlottenburg District Court) in the neighbourhood of Charlottenburg in Berlin on Sept. 5, 2023. (Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images)
Commentary
Remember how the Brittany Higgins case blew up when a juror brought into the jury room an academic paper discussing the frequency of false allegations of sexual assault?
That broke the rules prohibiting jury members from accessing outside material relevant to the case.
Yet the significance of this extraordinary event, which led to the mistrial of one of Australia’s most sensational rape cases, has passed largely unnoticed.
The myth that women hardly ever lie is a central plank of the feminist myth about sexual assault which now underpins our justice system. That makes it absolutely vital for the movement to maintain the fallacy that false allegations are statistically extremely rare.
Boy, have they done a great job in promoting that mistruth.
The mantra that false allegations hardly ever happen lurks as a dangerous subtext in sexual assault cases hitting the courts in Australia.
Bruce Lehrmann’s lawyers are preparing for next month’s defamation battle against Network 10, Lisa Wilkinson, and the ABC over their coverage of last year’s criminal case.
But The Guardian newspaper is determined, running a headline claiming Network 10 lawyers will “seek to use evidence of rarity of false rape complaints.”
Bruce Lehrmann leaves the ACT Magistrates Court in Canberra, Australia, on Oct. 26, 2022. (Martin Ollman/Getty Images)
But what about that evidence?
Well, it’s not hard to guess what Network 10 experts would trot out. Five percent of rape allegations are found to be false, they claimed. That’s the party line and you’ll find it promoted everywhere.“Guys, you can stop worrying about false rape allegations. They’re extremely rare,”saidthe ABC’s Hack program, pitched at young people.The Sydney Morning Heraldrecentlypronounced that we do not have a major problem with men being falsely accused of sexual assault, claiming “statistics show false complaints of sexual assault are incredibly rare—a 2016 meta-analysis of seven studies of rape allegations in four Western countries put confirmed false police reports at 5 percent.”They’re all singing from the same songbook, but that’s just been shot full of holes.
Let’s Test That 5 Percent Claim
Finally, that famous meta-analysis has been subjected to proper scrutiny—and the data actually reveals false allegations are far less rare than is commonly claimed.
This is all courtesy of two Australian researchers, Tom Nankivell and John Papadimitriou, who have expertise in statistical analysis and public policy, and more than three decades of experience each as researchers and policy analysts with various government agencies.They conducted a review (pdf), titled “True or false, or somewhere between?” in which they analysed the methods and data reported in often-cited statistical surveys of the prevalence of false allegations, undertaken in various countries.
This research was recently highlighted by Oxford criminology researcher, Ros Burnett, who described the Nankivell/Papadimitriou review as “an important and overdue study,” commending the authors for bringing “an empirical approach and unrhetorical tone to the discussion.”Ms. Burnett’s discussion of the review, published last month in The Justice Gap, shows that the Ferguson and Malouff meta-analysis on the statistical studies that came up with the much-promoted 5 percent false allegation rate, misused policing definitions and categories to skew their results.
In effect, the surveys cherry-picked the lowest possible rate, selectively ignoring whole categories of cases likely to include false allegations.
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection specialist inspects flowers for insects with a magnifying glass at JFK Airport in New York City, on Feb. 7, 2023. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Get this … in counting up false allegations, the studies that Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Malouff re-analysed only included cases where the complainant admitted the allegation was false, or where police found strong evidential grounds to assume she (or he) had made it up or had been mistaken.That meant excluding all cases where there was insufficient evidence to prosecute, where the complainant withdrew the allegation, or where the accused was tried and acquitted.
None of these cases were included under false allegations!
In addition, at least one of the studies included basic mathematical errors while others relied on very limited data.
With this highly dubious culling of the data, it is no wonder that they come up with such a low rate of false allegations.
Mr. Nankivell and Mr. Papadimitriou laboriously re-examined the original data to include estimates of possible false allegations in these excluded categories.
They concluded that “even with reasonably modest assumptions about the actual level of false allegations in other categories, the prevalence rate for the studies sample would easily exceed 10 percent and could approach 15 percent.”Note this is the conclusion from two very conservative, quantitative researchers.
The Narrative Sidelines True Victims
Given what we now know, what’s the bet the real rate is actually far higher?According to a recent YouGov survey, 19 percent of Australians know someone personally who was a victim of a false accusation of sexual abuse or rape.
Yet the Nankivell/Papadimitriou report is vital information, so necessary for putting the record straight about this critical statistic which is being used to shut down debate on false allegations and undermine the chances of a fair hearing for accused men.In her article examining this research, Ros Burnett discusses her own work for over a decade as a criminologist looking at wrongful allegations—she’s the editor of an excellent book, “Wrongful Accusations of Sexual and Child Abuse.”
Mr. Burnett describes the hundreds of cases she has encountered where individuals have been found to be falsely accused and her frustration when such cases are dismissed as “extremely” or “vanishingly” rare. She has been personally accused of “being an apologist for rapists.”
That’s the climate we live in, where misinformation is cooked up to promote the women-don’t-lie narrative and denigrate anyone with the courage to tell the truth about what’s really going on.
Mr. Nankivell and Mr. Papadimitriou rightly make the point that “there is no credible evidence that women routinely fabricate sexual assault claims” and that “the majority of sexual assault reports are true.”
But what also muddies the waters is the massive expansion of the type of behaviour now classified as sexual assault.
There’s a steady stream of cases now finding their way into court which involve young couples, where a girl may suddenly decide that she hadn’t given consent on one occasion after having intercourse when she was half asleep, or pretty drunk, even though they might have done this dozens of times before.
It makes no sense.Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.Bettina ArndtAuthor
Is canceling at the last minute the new fashionably late? Etiquette experts have heard the rumors and noticed that norms are trending that way.
“During the pandemic, society experienced events of all sizes being frequently canceled and rescheduled, sometimes even several times,” says Courtney Opalko, an etiquette expert and coach who launched Courtney Opalko Etiquette, LLC in 2020. “We all had to learn to be flexible, but it also made it easier and more acceptable to cancel at the last minute due to illness, crowds or unfavorable logistics.” Jennifer Porter, a Seattle-based etiquette expert, says the trend may have some well-intentioned roots.
Generally, it’s not good. “The problem with canceling at the last minute is that it minimizes the other party’s time and effort required to make the plan,” Porter says. “It can have adverse effects on relationships if done too often with the same person or group of friends or family.”
Professional relationships can also fray.
When we commit to a meeting or collaboration, it signifies a level of respect and dedication to the project or partnership,” says Lauren LaPointe, a corporate and personal etiquette consultant. “Frequent cancellations can convey a lack of reliability and commitment, which can erode trust and potentially harm our professional reputation.” https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
How Late Is Too Late To Cancel Plans?
It depends. As a general rule of thumb, switch your RSVP to “no” as soon as you know your plans need to change. “Any cancellation, short of a true emergency, should be communicated as far in advance as possible,” Opalko says.
OK, but what’s the cut-off if you’re feeling too tired to go to happy hour or simply don’t feel like going anymore?
“If the cancellation is due to feeling overwhelmed, overscheduled or simply no longer being interested in the event, it’s important to give two to three days’ notice, if not more.”
LaPointe says the timeframe is similar for professional obligations.
“For significant events or commitments, such as…important business meetings, canceling within 48 to 72 hours in advance is advisable to minimize disruptions and show respect for the time and effort invested by others,” LaPointe says.https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Canceling happy hour or business meetings may cost you a relationship or money. However, pay-per-plate events like weddings, Sweet 16s and large retirement parties often require hosts to submit head counts and commit to payments in advance. So, when you blow it off at the last minute, you’re actually costing someone else money. This nuance is important.
“A formal event like a wedding requires more notice, with the minimum being at least one week prior to the event to account for catering and the final event deadline,” Opalko says. Related: 10 Best Phrases for Reaching Out to Someone When It’s Been Too Longhttps://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Is It Ever OK To Cancel Plans Last-Minute?
Of course it is. There are exceptions to the above rule, including for pay-per-plate events like weddings or high-pressure business meetings.
“Life throws us curveballs on a daily basis, and no one is immune to this disruption,” Porter says.
LaPointe says some common and totally valid reasons to change plans at the last minute include:https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Physical or mental health emergencies
Childcare crisis
Natural disasters
Illnesses, hospitalizations or deaths of loved ones
Legal obligations
Travel disruptions, like canceled flights or car accidents
We live in a fast-paced world that loves instant gratification, but Opalko says it’s best to take a beat before texting that you’re “so in” for dinner with a pal.
“It’s OK to take time before saying yes and committing to something,” Opalko says. “Graciously thank the person for the invitation and let them know you’ll confirm with them as soon as possible,”https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
2. Check your calendar
Nix double-booking woes by keeping a digital or written calendar of your plans. Check it before agreeing to anything.
“Keeping an organized calendar really helps you know what you’ve got going on and when,” LaPointe says.
3. Do a gut-check
A commitment to self-care is great, but having an honest discussion with yourself can prevent mental health or exhaustion-related last-minute no-shows.
“It’s important to consider the tempo of your weekday, weekend, week, month or season of the year,” Porter says. “If you know that holidays are a busy time with work and family commitments, it will be important to carve out time for friends, but aim not to overtax your time, energy and budget by saying yes to every invitation that comes along.” Related: 12 Phrases To Use When Someone Is ‘Talking Down’ to You—and Why They Work, According to Psychologistshttps://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
The 3-Step Guide To Canceling Last-Minute
1. Pick up the phone
Text messaging offers a quick, low-confrontational way to bail, but Porter suggests sucking it up and calling.
“If you must cancel plans at the last minute, pick up the phone and make voice contact to apologize for the inconvenience and potential disappointment you may have caused by your actions,” Porter says. “If appropriate, text in advance to see if the person has a minute to talk.”https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
2. Consider bearing gifts
Canceling plans last minute can feel a bit thoughtless. A sweet gesture can put a better taste in a person’s mouth, especially if you bailed on a wedding.
“Consider either a handwritten card of thanks and apology or a gift of some kind, like flowers and food delivery,” Porter says.
3. Offer to reschedule
If you value the relationship, offer to reschedule. Even if you can’t recreate a pal’s big 40th birthday bash, buying her lunch can give the two of you quality time together.
“Offering to reschedule or suggesting an alternative helps demonstrate your commitment to the relationship or the plan,” LaPointe says. “It shows your willingness to make amends. You might say something like, ‘I know this is disappointing, but can we reschedule our hiking trip for next weekend? I was really looking forward to it, and I still want to make it happen.'”
Next: 10 Best Phrases for Reaching Out to Someone When It’s Been Too Longhttps://prod-native.actionbutton.co/?isNativeEmbed=true&c4e5c407-ec0c-4ba5-b873-950132d51757https://32baaad605aefae8669a19a48504a7f6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
Continue reading
